Top 5 Takeaways

1. Increase in Death Rate: The overall age-adjusted death rate (AADR) in the U.S. increased by 0.7% from 2020 to 2021.
2. COVID-19 Impact: COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death for the second consecutive year, responsible for approximately 460,513 deaths.
3. Demographic Disparities: Death rates were highest among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native and non-Hispanic Black populations.
4. Age and Sex Differences: The highest death rates were observed in persons aged ≥85 years, with males having higher death rates than females.
5. Provisional Data Utility: Provisional death estimates provide early signals about shifts in mortality trends, guiding public health policies and interventions.

Original Article Author and Citation

Corresponding Author

Farida B. Ahmad, fbahmad@cdc.gov

Suggested Citation

Ahmad FB, Cisewski JA, Anderson RN. Provisional Mortality Data — United States, 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022;71:597-600. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7117e1

Summary

This report presents an overview of provisional U.S. mortality data for 2021, highlighting a 0.7% increase in the overall age-adjusted death rate from 2020. COVID-19 remained the third leading cause of death, with significant disparities observed across different demographic groups. The highest death rates were among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native and non-Hispanic Black populations, and among persons aged ≥85 years. Provisional data provide early insights into mortality trends, aiding in the formulation of public health policies.

Methods

The CDC National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collected and analyzed death certificate data from January to December 2021. The causes of death were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision. Age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) and crude death rates were calculated by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. R statistical software was used for all analyses.

Discussion

The report indicates a slight increase in the overall death rate in 2021 compared to 2020, with COVID-19 continuing to be a major contributing factor. Demographic patterns of mortality were consistent with 2020, but certain populations experienced shifts in death rates. The highest death rates were among older adults, males, and specific racial and ethnic groups. The data underscore the importance of targeted public health interventions.

Conclusion

The provisional mortality data for 2021 reveal critical insights into the impact of COVID-19 and other causes of death across different demographic groups. These findings highlight the need for continued public health efforts to address disparities and reduce mortality rates, especially among the most affected populations.

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