Top 5 Takeaways
- High In-Person Learning Rates: As of September 17, 2021, 96% of school districts were offering full in-person learning.
- Regional Variations in Remote Learning: The largest number of districts with full remote learning were in the West Census Region.
- COVID-19 Related Closures: There were 248 districtwide and 384 individual school closures due to COVID-19, affecting 933,913 students and 59,846 teachers.
- Limitations of Data Collection: The study’s data collection methods may not be inclusive of all school districts and could be subject to serial errors.
- CDC Recommendations: To prevent COVID-19 outbreaks, the CDC recommends vaccination, universal indoor masking, screening testing, and physical distancing in schools.
Original Article Author and Citation
Corresponding Author
Sharyn E. Parks, Sparks@cdc.gov
Suggested Citation
Summary
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government prioritized ensuring continuity of learning for students. This report estimates the extent of COVID-19–associated school disruptions using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to determine the most likely learning modalities (full in-person, hybrid, or full remote) for U.S. schools from August 1 to September 17, 2021. The study found that 96% of districts offered full in-person learning, with regional variations in remote learning. COVID-19 led to 248 districtwide and 384 individual school closures, affecting nearly 934,000 students and 60,000 teachers.
Methods
The study used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to estimate learning modalities, combining data from multiple sources such as Burbio, MCH Strategic Data, and state dashboards. Weekly learning modalities from August 2020 to July 2021 were used to train the HMM, which was then applied weekly from August 1 to September 17, 2021. Additionally, systematic Internet searches were conducted to track school closures due to COVID-19, with closure data imported into SAS for analysis.
Discussion
The findings indicate a high rate of in-person learning despite the pandemic, with regional differences in remote learning. The study highlights limitations such as potential data collection biases and the assumption that weekly probabilities remain constant. The data suggest that longer in-session times in the South may account for higher closure rates. Federal agencies are using these findings to identify and support affected districts and schools.
Conclusion
Most schools have remained open for in-person learning, but COVID-19 has caused significant disruptions, affecting the education and well-being of many students and teachers. The CDC recommends comprehensive prevention strategies to mitigate outbreaks and maintain safe learning environments.
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